The Morning After: UALR Politicos Look Ahead
The votes have been counted — or most of them — and the results are in: the Republicans have gained control of the House and the
Democrats have lost a few seats, but still have control of the Senate, and President Obama is still in the White House.
What’s next? Two UALR political science professors — one that leans Republican, the other Democrat — were asked what they expected to see with the 111th Congress and a White House sharing responsibility for government policy.
Drs. Margaret Scranton and Art English, both professors of political science, agreed that Tuesday’s election results will make both parties responsible for what is accomplished, but both feared continued partisan feuding would continue through the next election cycle — which started the day after polls closed Tuesday.
“I think if anything is to get done — and that anything is abstract to me — it will happen in the first session of this Congress,” English said. “The fall (lame duck) session brings into play the (2012) presidential election which actually has started already, consider (former Arkansas Gov. Mike) Huckabee’s appearance schedule in New Hampshire and Iowa and other salient primary states.”
Scranton said Tuesday’s election answered who won and who lost, but the animosity and rancor that divides Democrats and Republicans continues, and she said that divisiveness frustrates the public.
“The American people are notoriously impatient,” Scranton said. “I think the Republicans have more intensity this time, but mid-term elections always have lower turnouts and negative ads depress voter turnout. This is a change election, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be another one in two years.”
She said congressional Republicans and the party as a whole should exercise their newly restored power wisely.
“The Republican (congressional) majority is lumpy. You have foreign policy Republicans, fiscal conservatives, social conservatives, tea party populists and one-issue Republicans – it’s not a smooth, coherent group.”
Republican takeover of the House raised questions about the President’s ability to get any legislation through the GOP-controlled lower house. But Scranton said she was more interested in how the new majority will wield other powers.
“One thing that I haven’t heard mentioned much is Congress’ oversight function: the power to investigate not just program implementation and financial accountability but also to investigate alleged wrongdoing by individuals,” Scranton said. “It’s possible that the Republican majority in the House — which means having a Republican chairing every House committee and subcommittee — will be tempted to gain political advantage by initiating a variety of investigations of the Obama administration.”
The oversight power and responsibility can help find out what government programs are working and what fixes are needed to fix problems. But she said parties back in power after a time in the minority wilderness often are politically tempted to investigate real or imagined wrongdoing.
Scranton, who teaches a spring semester course on the Clinton administration, said Republicans initiated House and Senate investigations, authorized a special prosecutor, and eventually brought impeachment charges against the 42nd president. As a result, the Democrat was re-elected to a second term and his popularity continued to grow during the impeachment process.
“Whether these are merited or not, such investigations can consume vast amounts of administration officials’ time and resources as they prepare to testify and then appear before committee hearings,” Scranton said.
Said English: “In 1994, the Republicans under (former Speaker Newt) Gingrich overreached their mandate. One would assume this new group will be smarter than that. But I don’t think congressional Republicans will want to give Obama anything he can take credit for, so that will become a positioning game. Repealing healthcare isn’t going to happen. I think the veto pen will be used a lot in the 111th Congress.”
Both professors agreed the voters who went to the polls were frustrated. If the new Republican majority can’t make progress, another change might be in the works for 2012.
“Governing often has a sobering effect on folks who were campaigning on stuff that likely could not happen, and it will be interesting to see if work can be done which will be beneficial to easing the economic distress of so many Americans,” English said.
“Republicans will now have to assume some of the responsibility for solving these problems and this, in itself, raises interesting questions,” he said. “With government spending or additional stimulus seemingly off the table, what programs will be cut to
take down spending? What will Democrats and Republicans be able to agree upon?”